Show me the actual TAM

Every founder can google their own market in a way that it always looks like the next multibillion opportunity with >20% CAGR.

I get quite a few pitches every week. These are only a few extracts from 7 startup pitches:

1. A new way to have AI harnesses packaged as "for the whole R&D"
2. A data leak prevention product remarketed as full governance and admin
3. A CV screener and matcher rebranded into end-to-end HR departments

All of them went from actual and realistic multimillion ARR to multibillion theoretical fluff, backed by a Google screenshot of their TAM (thanks Gemini).

The TAM I'd like to see

1. Select your ICP on LinkedIn.
2. Find the rough number of companies or people that match. Premium shows it.
3. Multiply that number by the average unit price for that customer.

You should have validated that price by the time you are pitching investors. If you haven't, that's the first thing to fix.

The formula is simple:

$$\textcolor{#FF7600}{\textbf{TAM}} = \textcolor{#66B6FF}{\textbf{ICP accounts}} \times \textcolor{#66B6FF}{\textbf{avg price}}$$

I'd use LinkedIn to show the nr of accounts and your last year of revenue / customers for the avg price.

Yes, the number gets smaller, but you'll raise.

When we raised our first €250,000 for our startup we did exactly that over coffee. The conversation was relaxed and I could show the numbers in real time over LinkedIn.

We were targeting mid-to-big pharma with $1,000 yearly seats per person.

"Look, I don't know what the actual TAM is or will be." I said sipping my cappuccino "I can tell you though that there are 112,000 companies fitting our ICP on Linkedin [showed the search live], and on average there are 800 employees per company, with 5% of their headcount needing our solution."

Then I plugged the numbers:

$$\textcolor{#66B6FF}{\textbf{112{,}000}} \text{ ICPs} \times \textcolor{#66B6FF}{\textbf{40}} \text{ (the 5\% of 800)} \times \textcolor{#66B6FF}{\textbf{\$1{,}000}} \text{ (our avg annual seat price)}$$

That lead to $4.4B annual recurring revenue potential.

Were the numbers lower than just googling "healthtech global market"? Yes.

Will yours be lower? Absolutely.

But you'll also get an actual roadmap for the next 2 to 3 years, and one you can achieve. You know how many accounts exist, what each one pays, and how many you need to close to hit a revenue target.

Call it actual TAM, SOM, or SAM. I don't care. Just prove it with numbers based on verified data.